The Biden administration is reportedly weighing options to recognize Palestinian statehood in the wake of the recent war between Israel and Gaza militants. This potential policy shift would upend decades of US opposition to Palestinian statehood bids at the UN.
Background Leading Up to Current Situation
The Israel-Palestine conflict has been ongoing for decades, with numerous attempts to broker peace failing to result in a two-state resolution. The 1993 Oslo Accords were meant to lay the groundwork for Palestinian self-governance, but the accords have failed to produce a Palestinian state.
Over the years, the US has consistently vetoed UN resolutions that call for recognizing Palestine as an independent state, adhering to the position that statehood should only come through direct negotiations between Israel and Palestinian leaders. However, these direct talks have stalled for over a decade amid deep distrust on both sides.
The recent 11-day war between Israel and Hamas has brought the Israel-Palestine conflict back into focus. The conflict left at least 260 Palestinians and 13 Israelis dead before an Egypt-brokered ceasefire took effect.
| Death Toll from Latest Israel-Gaza War |
|---|
| 260+ Palestinians |
| 13 Israelis |
The war has spurred criticism of Israel over Palestinian casualties and prompted calls for the Biden administration to recalibrate its approach to the conflict. President Biden has affirmed support for a two-state solution but has continued longstanding US opposition to unilateral moves at the UN.
Report: US Actively Pursuing Palestinian Statehood
However, a report from the New York Times now states that the State Department has been tasked with developing a plan for how the US could recognize Palestinian statehood outside the framework of negotiations with Israel. This represents a dramatic shift that would overturn decades of carefully crafted US policy.
The Times report, authored by columnist Thomas Friedman, cites multiple sources saying the State Department is exploring options to recognize Palestinian statehood perhaps after the upcoming Israeli election. Friedman suggests such a move would be part of a broader recalibration of US policy that includes reopening a consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem.
The report has sparked alarm in Israel, with Prime Minister Lapid rejecting any unilateral measures: “*We are completely opposed to this. This will not happen.” Several Republican lawmakers have also slammed the reported plans, accusing Biden of betraying Israel.
However, the State Department has downplayed the Times report, saying there has been no shift in policy: “We will continue to oppose efforts to unfairly single out Israel at the UN.” The Department says the US still supports a two-state solution reached through direct negotiations.
What Comes Next? Recognizing Statehood Would Have Major Implications
If the Biden administration were to reverse course and recognize Palestinian statehood outside bilateral negotiations, it would carry significant ripple effects. Here is what could unfold:
Push at UN for Wider Recognition
- Armed with US backing, the Palestinians would likely mount a forceful diplomatic push for statehood recognition at the UN and other international bodies. This could isolate Israel diplomatically and alter the dynamics of future negotiations.
Aid and International Court Implications
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As a recognized state, Palestine would be eligible for increased international aid and could join various UN agencies like UNESCO and the WHO.
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It could also bring cases against Israel at the International Criminal Court regarding alleged human rights violations in the occupied territories. This would subject Israel to heightened scrutiny and prosecution risk.
Security Coordination with Israel at Risk
- If the US moves alone without Israel’s consent, it could severely strain ties with Israel and undermine security coordination efforts seen as crucial for Israel’s defense. This risks flare-ups of violence and chaos.
Pressure Campaign Against Israel Inside US
- Statehood recognition could embolden advocates of boycotts and pressure campaigns against Israel over its policies towards Palestinians. This could fracture the bilateral relationship and the traditionally strong US public support for Israel.
In short, the implications would be profound. While the State Department has downplayed the Times report, the prospect of the US reversing decades of policy remains a bombshell development that continues to send shockwaves.
Much could change ahead of Israel’s election in November and a potential meeting between Biden and the newly elected Israeli leader. However, the administration’s serious exploration of statehood options marks a seismic shift that bears close watching in the months ahead.
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