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June 17, 2024

HarmonyOS Poised to Overtake iOS in China This Year, Shaking Up Global Mobile OS Landscape

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Jan 5, 2024

Huawei’s Homegrown OS Gaining Momentum in Vital Home Market

HarmonyOS, Chinese tech giant Huawei’s homegrown operating system, is projected to surpass Apple’s iOS to become the second most-used mobile OS in China this year, according to a new report from market intelligence firm TechInsights [1]. Released in 2019 after Huawei was cut off from accessing Google’s Android OS due to US trade sanctions, HarmonyOS has seen rapid adoption on Huawei devices. And with China being both the world’s largest smartphone market and crucial to Huawei’s bottom line, strong growth there for HarmonyOS signals trouble for Apple while validating Huawei’s massive bet on developing its operating system.

Battle for Vital China Market Share Heating Up

HarmonyOS is expected to capture 24% market share in China this year based on shipments, surging from just 9% in 2023 according to TechInsights’ forecast. Meanwhile, iOS is predicted to decline from 16% to 15% [2][3]. Experts say HarmonyOS’ features catering to the Chinese market like multi-device connectivity and optimized performance on lower-specced hardware are driving adoption. And Huawei’s scale and distribution network in its home country provide a vital boost.

With China accounting for over 60% of smartphone users globally, the heated battle for market share between iOS and HarmonyOS has enormous stakes. Huawei capturing more share from Apple in China would deal a financial blow while raising HarmonyOS’ stature as it looks to expand abroad. However, iOS retaining users would validate its status as the preferred premium mobile ecosystem. Ultimately, Chinese consumers stand to benefit as the tech giants aggressively compete on devices, services, and features.

Mobile OS Market Share – China 2023 2024 Forecast
Android 71% 71%
HarmonyOS 9% 24%
iOS 16% 15%

Source: TechInsights

Outlook Hazy for HarmonyOS Beyond China

While HarmonyOS has momentum in China, analysts caution global prospects remain unclear [4]. Attempts to compete with Android and iOS have struggled historically given the strong lock-in effects and network effects of mobile operating systems. Windows Phone and Samsung’s Tizen OS never gained significant traction despite major company backing. However, HarmonyOS’ expanding app catalog and compatibility across phones, tablets, wearables, and more could differentiate it. But restrictions on accessing Google services would hamper international growth.

Huawei has set ambitious shipment targets for HarmonyOS devices like 200 million smartphones annually. And rumors suggest it is eying bringing the OS to PCs next [5]. But it remains to be seen whether Chinese dominance will translate abroad. In China, Huawei enjoys favored status as a national champion brand with unique advantages in distribution, marketing, and relationships. Replicating any degree of success outside China without Google integration looks to be an uphill climb.

Geopolitical Implications of Huawei’s Software Independence

The ascent of HarmonyOS must also be viewed against the backdrop of ongoing US-China tech tensions. Huawei moving millions of Chinese consumers off US software from Apple and Google holds economic and even political significance. Some analysts argue if Huawei proves deficits can be overcome from blocked access to American software and standards, Beijing might grow more aggressive in bifurcating technology spheres with the West [6].

However, rampant nationalism and government support rather than genuine competitiveness have fueled HarmonyOS’ rise in China so far. And China’s domestic market, while enormous, still pales compared to global scale. Nonetheless, HarmonyOS shaking up the mobile OS status quo by creating a possible China-centric alternative underscores how tech security concerns and supply chain vulnerabilities could radically reshape industries.

Outcome Remains Uncertain in Shifting Technology Landscape

The next 12 months promise to be pivotal in determining HarmonyOS’ staying power both at home and abroad. Strong early adoption from Chinese consumers is an encouraging start. But the platform must keep expanding functionality and outside developer support to drive continued growth in its vital home market. And proving itself as an attractive option for international OEMs in emerging markets like Southeast Asia would mark a major milestone.

However, the scales still tip heavily against HarmonyOS unseating entrenched rivals to become a truly global third ecosystem anytime soon despite projected domestic gains. Network effects and application barriers to entry should not be underestimated. Yet with the mobile technology landscape evolving at breakneck speed, Huawei has a window to at least establish itself as uniquely suited for China if not position HarmonyOS as an regional or worldwide alternative. And Apple and Google will need to redouble software and hardware efforts in China to counter ascending homegrown competition.

The Huawei software independence push caps a multi-year tech decoupling process between China and the US sparked by cybersecurity and espionage fears. And HarmonyOS gaining relevance exemplifies how 21st century geopolitical rivalries are increasingly being fought in the technology arena. Chinese officials have a vested interest in domestically-controlled software and hardware thriving. While in turn the US will monitor any signs of unlawful state aid or other concerning policies while treading a fine line given extensive business interests in China.

As 2024 unfolds, attention turns to consumers, carriers, content creators and other key ecosystem participants determining winners and losers. HarmonyOS appears positioned for domestic disruption at minimum given production forecasts and early reception. But transcending China to make an impact regionally or worldwide faces substantial obstacles. One thing is certain – with intensifying US-China scrutiny across trade, security matters and more, the tech split symbolized by HarmonyOS will likely widen rather than narrow in the years ahead.

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AiBot scans breaking news and distills multiple news articles into a concise, easy-to-understand summary which reads just like a news story, saving users time while keeping them well-informed.

To err is human, but AI does it too. Whilst factual data is used in the production of these articles, the content is written entirely by AI. Double check any facts you intend to rely on with another source.

By AiBot

AiBot scans breaking news and distills multiple news articles into a concise, easy-to-understand summary which reads just like a news story, saving users time while keeping them well-informed.

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