Iran launched a series of missile strikes against the Kurdish region of northern Iraq and areas in eastern Syria in an apparent response to recent attacks against Iranian targets. The strikes mark a serious escalation of tensions in the region and have triggered international condemnation.
Missile Attack On Erbil
On Sunday night, Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at the city of Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq. The missiles targeted the newly built Mossad intelligence headquarters in Erbil, according to Iranian state media reports.
At least 4 civilians were killed and over 10 injured in the barrage of missiles that hit residential areas and offices in Erbil (source). The attack also damaged the newly opened Israeli consulate in the city.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for the attack, calling it revenge for Israeli air raids that killed Iranian military commanders in Syria last week (source).
However, senior Kurdish and Iraqi officials disputed Iran’s claims that it hit a Mossad base, saying the missiles struck areas with no Israeli presence (source).
Strikes In Eastern Syria
In coordination with the Erbil attack, Iran also fired Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missiles at positions held by Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border.
At least 9 members of Iranian Kurdish factions were killed in the strikes on their bases in Deir Ez-Zor province of Syria, an opposition war monitor reported (source).
Iran said the missile strikes targeted the “headquarters of terrorist groups” that have allegedly been involved in Kurdish unrest and protests against the Iranian regime over the past few months.
International Condemnation
The brazen attacks by Iran were met with widespread condemnation from world leaders.
The U.S. State Department issued a strong statement denouncing Iran’s “reprehensible attacks” that killed civilians in Erbil. It vowed to support Iraq’s sovereignty and independence in the wake of Iran’s assault (source).
Similarly, the E.U., U.K., France, Germany and regional allies like Saudi Arabia criticized Iran’s “destabilizing” actions and called for de-escalation of tensions (source).
Iraq recalled its ambassador from Iran and summoned Iran’s top diplomat in Baghdad to protest the attack on its soil. Iraqi officials warned that the missile strikes could drag their country into the growing conflict between Iran and Israel (source).
Escalating Iran-Israel Shadow War
The missile strikes are the latest salvo in the escalating shadow war between Iran and Israel that is being fought across the region.
Over the past few years, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian assets and proxies in Syria and Iraq. Iran has now retaliated by directly hitting targets linked to Israel’s intelligence services.
Analysts warn that tit-for-tat strikes could spiral out of control and ignite a wider regional conflagration (source). As Iran faces growing diplomatic isolation over its nuclear program, some experts fear it could turn to asymmetric warfare through its proxies to hit back at its enemies.
The next flashpoint could be Lebanon, where Iran backs the powerful Hezbollah militia that has thousands of advanced missiles aimed at Israel. Any miscalculation could unleash devastating conflict between the bitter rivals.
Domestic Pressure On Iranian Regime
Behind Iran’s aggressive posturing lies growing domestic discontent that poses an existential threat to the Iranian regime.
The country has seen relentless protests sparked by the death of a young woman in morality police custody last September. The predominantly young protesters have vented their frustration at political repression, economic hardship due to sanctions, and social restrictions enforced by hardline clerics (source).
| Key Facts About Ongoing Protests in Iran |
|---|
| Triggered by death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini in custody of morality police on Sept 16, 2022 |
| Mainly led by youth and women protestors in major cities and universities |
| Demand more social, economic and political freedoms and end to strict Islamic laws |
| Over 500 civilian deaths in the government’s violent crackdown on demonstrations so far |
To divert attention from growing public anger, the regime has doubled down on anti-Western rhetoric and adopted a more confrontational foreign policy stance. However, experts say this could backfire as sanctions batter Iran’s economy and anti-government protests show no signs of fading (source).
If the regime fails to address core grievances of protestors through substantive reforms, analysts predict a protracted period of unrest that could eventually lead to the downfall of Iran’s clerical leadership.
What Next?
In the aftermath of the missile strikes on Kurdish regions, all eyes are on how world powers will respond to contain Iran’s destabilizing actions.
Much will depend on Israel’s reaction and whether it chooses to retaliate militarily against Iranian interests in the region. This could trigger an uncontrollable escalation spiral. Alternatively, behind-the-scenes efforts could be underway to open diplomatic channels and avoid further clashes.
With Iran defiant and protestors unrelenting, the domestic crisis could intensify in coming weeks. The regime will likely continue its external aggression and crackdown to suppress dissent. But growing isolation and credibility crisis could force Tehran to eventually come to the negotiating table to hash out solutions.
Until Iran pivots from revolutionary ideology to pragmatic governance, the cycle of internal turmoil and external belligerence seems poised to continue with potentially catastrophic consequences for the region.
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