Iran has launched a series of missile and drone strikes targeting militant groups based in neighboring Pakistan, in an escalation of ongoing tensions between the two countries. The strikes come amid heightened conflicts across the Middle East, raising fears of wider regional instability.
Iran Says Strikes Targeted Terror Groups Responsible for Recent Attacks
According to Iran state media, the strikes launched early Tuesday morning targeted bases belonging to ethnic Baluch separatist groups Jaish al-Adl and Jeish al-Zulfiqar in Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province. Iran claims these groups have conducted a number of attacks within Iran in recent months, including an ambush that killed two Iranian Revolutionary Guard members last week.
Pakistan strongly condemned the violation of its airspace and sovereignty. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry stated that the strikes killed two children and injured 12 others, demanding Iran provide evidence to support its claims that militants were killed.
Iran maintains its right to self-defense against terrorist activity, accusing Pakistan of harboring groups staging cross-border attacks. Iranian state media reported “many terrorists” were killed in precision strikes on equipment and support facilities.
The targeted militant groups seek independence for ethnic Baluchistan territory spanning eastern Iran and western Pakistan. Jaish al-Adl has claimed responsibility for kidnapping and killing Iranian security personnel, while both groups are believed to maintain ties to Sunni extremist organizations.
Regional Tensions Growing Amid Internal Strife for Both Countries
The strikes come as Iran faces growing internal opposition and wider regional conflicts:
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Iran continues to battle domestic protest movements sparked by the death of a young woman in morality police custody last September. The unrest has galvanized anger against the authoritarian policies of Iran’s ruling clerical regime.
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Israel and Iran-backed Hamas recently agreed to an Egyptian-brokered Gaza ceasefire after 11 days of conflict during which hundreds were killed. However, tensions remain high as Iran continues supplying arms to militant allies.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran back opposite sides in Yemen’s civil war. The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels recently targeted Saudi oil facilities with explosive drones and missiles, though there were no casualties.
Pakistan is also confronting major domestic unrest with former Prime Minister Imran Khan leading mass protests and sit-ins demanding early elections. Last April, Khan became the first Pakistani PM removed by a vote of no confidence after losing military support. Pakistan’s government is attempting to navigate various conflicts as it deals with a faltering economy.
International Responses Call for De-escalation and Diplomacy
The missile strikes within Pakistan’s borders mark a serious escalation that could destabilize the region if tensions continue rising unabated. Leaders internationally are calling for calm and restraint:
- The U.S. issued a statement urging “all parties to refrain from additional military activity.” Secretary of State Brian Deese said the Biden administration is “prepared to support a mediated solution” between Iran and Pakistan.
- Russia warned against external destructive influences, while China advised peaceful dialogue. Turkey offered to broker talks between the neighboring countries.
- India, which maintains complex relations with both Iran and Pakistan, took a neutral stance. India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson emphasized respect for sovereignty but said countries could act against terrorist threats.
Domestically, protests have broken out within Pakistan denouncing Iran’s actions, while Iranian legislators passed a motion designating Pakistan’s intelligence agency as a terrorist organization. Both countries withdrew their ambassadors for consultations as Pakistan’s opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif heads to Iran seeking de-escalation.
Likelihood of Further Conflict Remains High Absent Diplomatic Progress
Despite calls for calm, the potential for additional violence remains worryingly high given the complex dynamics at play. Pakistan could retaliate militarily for what its leadership called an “unacceptable” violation of sovereignty. With national elections potentially occurring in late 2023, domestic pressure could push an aggressive response. However, Pakistan risks significant escalation with a more powerful neighbor if crossing Iranian borders.
Alternatively, if Pakistan cracks down on the Baluch insurgent groups, it risks further internal unrest and protests in an already tumultuous environment. Allowing continued militant activity threatening Iran seems untenable, given Tehran’s willingness to strike inside Pakistan. Successful diplomatic talks between Iran and Pakistan’s leadership in the coming days could chart a peaceful path forward. But decades of mistrust and competing interests will make mediation challenging.
Absent diplomatic progress, Iran may launch additional strikes targeting militants in Pakistani territory. Iran could also further arm allies in Yemen, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories to counter Saudi and Israeli interests. With conflicts raging across the Middle East, rivalries risk boiling over into open warfare drawing in major powers like the U.S. and Russia. The instability could also impact global oil markets and vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
Hope remains that wise leadership on all sides might prevent a regional crisis and further loss of life. But the path ahead remains murky and precarious amid the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.
Timeline of Recent Iran-Pakistan Tensions
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| September 16, 2022 | Nationwide protests erupt in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest for allegedly violating headscarf rules. |
| January 10, 2023 | Jaish al-Adl militants ambush an Iranian Revolutionary Guard convoy, abducting and killing two colonels. |
| January 11, 2023 | Iran’s President Raisi vows vengeance against militant groups crossing Iran’s borders. |
| January 16, 2023 | Iran launches retaliatory strikes with missiles and suicide drones against militant bases in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. |
| January 17, 2023 | Pakistan condemns the strikes that killed two children, demands Iran provide evidence to support its claims. |
| January 17, 2023 | Pakistan recalls its ambassador to Iran in protest as Iran designates a Pakistani intelligence agency as a terrorist organization. |
The path forward remains highly uncertain as both nations navigate internal unrest and complex foreign policy considerations surrounding an array of local and regional conflicts. Diplomatic efforts at de-escalation face major obstacles, even as leaders internationally call for peaceful dialogue over additional violence. The potential for miscalculation remains high with rival interests at play and decades of distrust between Iran and Pakistan.
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